National Waffle Index®
The National Waffle Index® is compiled using more than 200 selected search terms relating to waffle batter, waffle baking and the associated waffle irons, and thus correlates with waffle-baking activities in Germany. The figures are based on Google search volume. The Waffle Index is published by Cloer®. The underlying data is publicly available via Google, ensuring protection against manipulation and maximum transparency.
Waffles are booming amid optimism
The Waffle Index® shows a striking correlation with other consumer confidence indices. Here, for example, is the GFK Consumer Confidence Index. Correlation must certainly not be confused with causality; explanations and connections for this trend have been part of our company’s know-how for generations: waffles are booming when confidence is high. Using public data from Google Search, we can now provide verifiable evidence of this and share it with you.
Trend: Phase 1
It will come as no surprise to anyone that waffle-related activity increased with the outbreak of the pandemic. We recall that, due to food hoarding, flour and other baking ingredients were temporarily sold out. When patisseries and restaurants were closed during lockdown and permitted gatherings were limited to small groups, there was hardly anything more obvious.
Downturn following a boom
The downturn in waffle-baking activity following the lifting of pandemic restrictions also seems, at first glance, like a truism. What is surprising, however, is the prolonged downturn following the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Never before have we recorded so many solidarity baking campaigns on our charity platform Waffelhilfe.org as during this period. Clubs and organisations from a wide variety of sectors of society have been baking in town centres and shops to support Ukraine. Unfortunately, however, far less baking took place in private homes during this period, which meant that overall activity declined for an unusually long time.
A sharp U-turn
What is striking, then, is the sharp change of direction in June 2022. The GFK records only a brief lull in the downward trend here. The HDE Consumer Barometer showed a slightly more pronounced reaction at this point. However, both indices subsequently continued their downward trend. The Waffle Index, on the other hand, had already completely reversed direction by this point – five months before the two aforementioned indices did exactly the same.
Recovery provides a boost
With the change of direction in June 2022, the Waffle Index has taken off. Recoveries in consumer confidence are fuelling the growth of the Waffle Index. Any downturns in consumer confidence are often immediately reflected in the Waffle Index.
Tension mounts
The steep growth of the Waffle Index will eventually reach its limits, leading to stagnation or a change in direction. Even though forecasts are particularly difficult when they concern the future, we will keep a close eye on the Waffle Index and share its development with you here.
Uncertainty due to organic growth:
Essentially, the Waffle Index reflects the activity of waffle bakers. However, we must also take into account the trend that waffle bakers are turning to cookbooks less and less, and to their smartphones more and more. This organic growth may be pushing the absolute figures of the Waffle Index upwards. The increased availability of good waffle recipes online is contributing to this. Cloer® has also responded to this demand and, last year, editorially revised the traditional original recipe and published it in the Cloer® brand shop. With detailed explanations and background information, the original recipe handed down by the founder, Caspar Cloer®, is now arguably the most comprehensive and detailed recipe on the internet.
The key shift towards online recipes took place years ago, driven by the widespread availability of smartphones. This is also evident from detailed analyses of the search terms that form the basis of the Waffle Index. 97 per cent of searches for the most popular keywords are carried out on mobile phones. This suggests that these searches are linked to specific baking projects, whether whilst shopping or during preparation, as the order in which ingredients are added is crucial when making waffle batter. You can find this and many other facts about waffle batter in the original, time-honoured recipe.
International Waffle Day
The detailed analysis of the Waffle Index also highlights the increased popularity of International Waffle Day, which is celebrated every year on 25 March. Whilst seasonal trends previously led to a steady decline in baking activity, 2023 saw a noticeable levelling off, followed by a significant peak in 2024.
A notable exception was International Waffle Day in 2020, which coincided exactly with the start of the first lockdown. This resulted in a marked spike in the Waffle Index. At the time, many waffle bakers celebrated International Waffle Day by leaving freshly baked waffles on their neighbours’ and friends’ doorsteps as a sign of solidarity and togetherness, helping everyone to come to terms with the shock of the first lockdown.
‘International Waffle Day’ originated from the phonetic similarity between the Swedish word ‘Vårfrudagen’ – meaning ‘Annunciation’ – and the word ‘Våffeldagen’, meaning ‘Waffle Day’. International Waffle Day is celebrated every year on 25 March by baking heart-shaped waffles as a symbol of love and enlightenment, to commemorate the actual events that took place over two thousand years ago and exactly nine months before Christmas.
National Waffle Index for Austria and Switzerland
The Waffle Index for Austria and Switzerland is calculated on the basis of the same German-language search terms. In Switzerland, therefore, only one value is calculated for the German-speaking part of the country. To obtain a meaningful index value, we use a correspondingly smaller divisor.
What is striking is the significantly sharper rise since March 2024. International Waffle Day on 25 March 2024 appears to have provided a significant boost to growth.
RFC-2900
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Month,Waffel Index,GFK Consumer Confidence Index,HDE Consumer Barometer Jan 19,,10.3,99.3 Feb 19,,10.6,99.76 Mar 19,,10.5,99.42 Apr 19,,10.2,101.14 May 19,,10.2,99.93 Jun 19,,10.1,100.03 Jul 19,,9.8,100.18 Aug 19,,9.7,99.73 Sep 19,,9.7,100.01 Oct 19,,9.8,99.74 Nov 19,,9.6,99.79 Dec 19,,9.7,99.33 Jan 20,,9.7,99.18 Feb 20,,9.1,99.28 Mar 20,,8.1,99.91 Apr 20,,2.3,96.66 May 20,,-23.1,90.53 Jun 20,,-18.6,93.51 Jul 20, -9.4, 96.34 Aug 20, -0.2, 98.14 Sep 20, -1.8, 98.34 Oct 20, -1.7, 98.66 Nov 20, -3.2, 98.09 Dec 20, -6.8, 95.64 Jan 21, 7.69, -7.5, 94.93 Feb 21, 7.85, -15.5, 94.36 Mar 21, 7.81, -12.7, 95.54 Apr 21, 7.81, -6.1, 96.56 May 21, 7.85, -8.6, 97.34 Jun 21, 7.76, -6.9, 97.65 Jul 21, 7.71, -0.3, 100.8 Aug 21, 7.74, -0.4, 100.38 Sep 21, 7.72, -1.1, 98.39 Oct 21, 7.63, 0.4, 98.01 Nov 21, 7.53, 1, 98.18 Dec 21, 7.49, -1.8, 95.36 Jan 22, 7.35, -6.9, 95.04 Feb 22, 7.29, -6.7, 94.62 Mar 22, 7.23, -8.5, 94.5 Apr 22, 7.16, -15.7, 89.56 May 22, 7.04, -26.6, 88.74 Jun 22, 7.11, -26.2, 89.61 Jul 22,7.16,-27.7,89.5 Aug 22,7.17,-30.9,86.56 Sep 22,7.28,-36.8,86.28 Oct 22, 7.37, -42.8, 84.14 Nov 22, 7.50, -41.9, 85.21 Dec 22, 7.62, -40.1, 87.8 Jan 23, 7.66, -37.6, 88.54 Feb 23, 7.72, -33.8, 91.93 Mar 23, 7.85, -30.6, 93.19 Apr 23,7.90,-29.3,93.33 May 23,7.94,-25.8,93.77 Jun 23,7.92,-24.4,94.29 Jul 23,7.99,-25.2,94.51 Aug 23,8.08,-24.6,94.65 Sep 23,8.05,-25.6,94.65 Oct 23, 8.15, -26.7, 95.06 Nov 23, 8.20, -28.3, 93.82 Dec 23, 8.23, -27.6, 96.35 Jan 24, 8.28, – 25.4, 93.57 Feb 24, 8.24, – 29.6, 93.72 Mar 24, 8.25, – 28.8, 95.62 Apr 24.8, 26, -27.3, 96.09 May 24.8, 35, -24, 97.51 Jun 24.8, 48, -21, 98.86 Jul 24,8.49,-21.6,97.76 Aug 24,8.48,-18.6,97.7 Sep 24,8.56,-21.9,96.93 Oct 24,8.58,-21,96.13 Nov 24,8.65,-18.4,97.25 Dec 24,8.72,-23.1,97.54 Jan 25,8.79,-21.4,94.99 Feb 25,,-22.6,95.31 Mar 25,,-24.7, Apr 25,,, May 25,,, Jun 25,,, Jul 25,,, Aug 25,,, Sep 25,,, Oct 25,,, Nov 25,,, Dec 25,,, 26 Jan,,,
